Why

Ever since I became politically conscious (~15 years old on the speech and debate and mock congress teams), I've been a self-described libertarian, realist, free market Republican. Ideologically, it is extremely appealing. Everyone looks out for his or herself, is self-sufficient, rises to his/her level of incompetence, and allows everyone else the same freedom. It's an extremely empowering ideology. All of your success is due to your hard work. Any failure is due to you not wanting to work harder. Having been born and raised in the Southwest, with all of its cowboy independence, it was a natural fit. I voted Republican down the line (with the exception of Bill Clinton in '96 - who was I to turn away from peace and prosperity?).

Last week, I voted for Barack Obama for President (early voting, as I'll be out of state on Election Day).

Up until a month ago, I was going to vote for John McCain. I voted for Senator McCain in the 2000 Republican primary (and how I wish he had been President the past eight years. And for full disclosure, I did not vote for him in the Republican primary this year. I voted for Ron Paul.). However, events over the past four weeks have convinced me that I cannot vote for him again.

First and foremost was his selection of Governor Palin. I wasn't immediately opposed to her because I knew nothing about her. I took a wait and see approach. Well, I've waited and I've seen. In my opinion, she lacks the intellect, the judgment, and the temperament to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency. I won't YouTube you to death, as I'm sure you've seen the interviews and debate (no press conferences though??), but I expect more from my leaders, especially after the past eight years.

McCain's political selection of her reflects poorly on his own judgment. Yes, it made sense politically. He did need to fire up his social conservative base, a base extremely wary of some of his more liberal tendencies (see campaign finance reform and immigration), but his selection of her as his running mate demonstrated that he was not putting 'Country First'. McCain selects Lieberman or Romney and I might not be writing this.

Which brings me to reason number two. The Republican social conservative base. I refuse to be affiliated with a group of people that hates/despises/thinks I am bound for eternal damnation and is pretty vocal about it due to my religion. The Republican base despises The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. I used to ignore it. I will not ignore it any longer.

Reason number three: The Republicans are no longer the party of small government. The romantic allure of Barry Goldwater's Republicanism no longer exists. In today's globalized environment of multi-national corporations and interdependent economies and governments, and as evidenced by the global financial meltdown now occurring, I'm not sure a small government approach is even possible.

Over the past thirty years, Republican administrations have increased the size of government in real dollars and as a percentage of spending year on year more than Democratic administrations have. We have a party that says government has a role to play and then spends pragmatically (relatively speaking) and another party that says government should get out of the way and then does the opposite and drives spending (the size of government) up.

If I don't have my romantic and possibly infeasible option any longer, I'll go with the pragmatic. Senator Obama is no messiah. He will not change our current situation with a wave or clap of his hands. However, I believe Senator Obama has the intellect, the judgment, and the temperament to do what is best for our country. My instincts tell me that he will put pragmatism over dogmatism. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Only time will tell, but for now, this could be the end of my own personal history (see Francis Fukuyama). Ideology from both the left and right has demonstrated that what ideology is really good at is getting in the way of doing what is right.

Credit

"Part of the reason this crisis occurred is that everyone was living beyond their means – from Wall Street to Washington to even some on Main Street. CEOs got greedy. Politicians spent money they didn't have. Lenders tricked people into buying home they couldn't afford and some folks knew they couldn't afford them and bought them anyway.

We've lived through an era of easy money, in which we were allowed and even encouraged to spend without limits; to borrow instead of save."

For the full text of Obama's speech today, click here.

Plan B

How to save Wall Street AND Main Street (lots and lots of cash).

The G7

And I thought the past two weeks were interesting. What is the G7 going to do this weekend? Coordinated rate cuts down to 0%, insure all deposits, nationalize the banks, revalue all mortgages, suspend all foreclosures, massive public/international works? Or something even more drastic (Central World Bank anyone with a single new currency?)?

Two Years

Can't I just go to sleep and wake up in two years with everything all better? A Global meltdown is at hand. Here's hoping for effective coordination among governments and central banks.

Three-Headed Monster

And what can be done about it. From The Economist.

I bet we see another coordinated rate cut in three weeks (maybe a full 100 basis points from the Fed).

Spending Freeze?

He was just kidding. McCain's mortgage restructuring would put $300B immediately into the hands of shareholders and bank managers (via economist Brad DeLong). Seriously what happened to the John McCain that I knew a year ago? A month ago?

Passion

Donna Brazile - CNN contributor, Democratic superdelegate, and Obama supporter at The New Yorker Festival last weekend.

A Collection

Of thoughts from conservative bloggers on last night's debate.

The writing is on the wall.

Not So Doomy

An Op-Ed from a UCLA professor in the WSJ.

Immigration will save us. I thought I said that a couple of years ago.

CFR Debate

Dr. Doom at the Council on Foreign Relations.

You can watch it here. I'd recommend watching it if you can. The transcript doesn't convey the interplay between the panel very well.

Unprecedented

A coordinated rate cut. Thank you Sweden.

More money, more money, more money. Where's my $500 loaf of gluten-free bread?

Debate v3

- Obama started out weak and unclear. He had to warm up to his talking points. McCain was on point from the get go.

- Point/counterpoint with the Fannie Mae/Obama connection and the deregulation/Bush/McCain connection

- McCain is going to actually buy the loans? Not just the securities? Wow, I never thought I'd hear a Republican talk about nationalizing home ownership. Socialism with a capital S (and probably a good political move - he needs something radical at this point).

- Obama is for a net spending cut (balanced budget or just smaller deficits? Tax Policy Center shows that Obama balances the budget.)

- Health care, entitlements, energy - McCain is going to do all three at once? Really? You're going to take on the third rail of politics at the same time as solving the energy and health care crisis? Now that's ambitious.

- Of course Obama puts entitlements last. He is a Democrat. Also politically smart to prioritize in this way.

- McCain links Obama to Hoover. Now that's a neat trick.

- Brokaw is an excellent moderator. The best of the three so far and heads and shoulders above Iffel.

- Starting to get nasty with the responses to each other. Brokaw is clearly frustrated, but still some semblance of control.

- Obama just talked about his mother's death and health care. Health care is a right. IT IS!!

- Foreign policy - what, no "naivete" tonight Senator McCain?

- Obama - McCain - "Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" Low blow and effective.

- And the rest...

Again, no gaffes. More nastiness, but that only solidifies positions, (see Sean Hannity's ravings preaching to the right wing choir). I think the 2% of undecideds are waiting for something spectacular and if that something spectacular does not happen, they'll go with what they perceive as either intellect and judgment or experience and judgment.

This election is Obama's to lose and he's doing a very good job at not losing it so far. FactCheck.org is up.

The German Question

From Stratfor. Germany's position on Ukraine/Georgia and Russia. Particularly interesting in light of McCain's and Obama's stances on foreign policy.

Only the Third Inning?

An IMF working paper written in August on recessions, credit crunches, and asset bubbles. Pages 17 through 33 contain the real meat.

Personal Plea

I'm too big to fail.

Senator Kyl

I wrote Senator Kyl twice over the past several weeks (along with Senator McCain and Congressman Jeff Flake). Today I received a reply from him that I'm sure several thousand other Arizonans received as well. The gist of it was:

- Our economy is in shambles
- We had to do something
- We talked to a lot of smart people
- We abandoned our free market principles
- This is the best we could do in the short term
- Let's cross our fingers and hope it works

Today's meltdown indicates to me that not enough of us were crossing our fingers.

FL

Holy Florida Batman! and a Transformed Election.

Talk about one of the worst three week stretches in American political history.

Will Work For Food

From the RGE Monitor: Something we are all concerned about (employment).

We Are All Socialists Now?

Or just socialism for the rich yet again?

I'm proud that my Congressman voted against this travesty.

Choked Up

Modern debates are not won on arguments. They are won on emotion. This was the moment of the debate:



Palin did surprisingly well, meaning expectations were so low that unless she had totally wigged out or said that she was Jesus, she was going to be perceived as having done a good job. Biden won the actual debate (pretty easy as Palin didn't really answer any questions posed to her by Iffel, only those questions written on her note cards, which once in a while corresponded to the question being asked).

FactCheck.org just for kicks.

From the WSJ

More on Moral Hazard

and

Lessons from the last 9 months for investors.

More from Dr. Doom

Coordinated 100 basis points reduction across all central banks globally. And that's just for starters. The man predicted this event two years ago. Maybe more people in Washington should start listening to him.

Deposit Insurance

Haven't our legislators ever heard of moral hazard? Deposit insurance is a terrible idea to begin with. It's not even insurance. It's a guarantee to the banks that they will not be held accountable for "insured" deposits if they engage in risky behavior that causes them to fail (think S&L crisis). Raising the limit to $250K simply means that cash strapped banks will need to put more of their cash into federal hands to meet their reserve requirements, which leads to higher fees from the banks and higher taxes from the government to cover the failures. Talk about these guys not understanding basic economics and only playing to their constituencies. Nanny state indeed.

The FDIC should be dissolved and we should be forced to invest our money with banks the same way we do with stocks, bonds, etc. Risk vs. return.

And yes, I realize that I suggested that moving money to insured and nearly insured (Treasuries) short to medium term investments would be a good idea. I don't make the rules, but I do play by them. Call me an idealistic pragmatist.

Politics and the Economy

"Political Nature of the Economic Crisis" from Stratfor.

As usual, excellent.

One Hit Wonder?

Daily podcast from Cato

I suspect it was. Some sort of debt funded bail-out is inevitable.

I Can Do That

Just to lighten it up a bit:

Sublime

Sometimes the Opinion page in the WSJ leaves me speechless. This is one such article.

Inflation is a tax. Deficits are a tax. Public debt is a tax. There is no free ride.

Advice

Save, save, save!. I'm going through every single expense to figure out what can be cut.

FDIC insured and Treasuries for all non-tax deductible short to medium term investments is where I am headed.

NH and VA

New Hampshire and Virginia have become battleground states? Talk about a demographic change. (Click on each state for details)

Now What?

This is insane.

Maybe I won't be reading those 110 pages tonight.

Full Text

All 110 pages of it. I'm going to read it when I have time tonight. I read the summary on the plane this morning and while I'm still pissed that we are funding this with debt, this is probably as good a deal as the taxpayer is going to get. Let's hope it actually works.

Nouriel Roubini, who I just found out is the economist that Glenn Beck uses (props to Glenn Beck for tracking him down at NYU), is beyond pessimistic. And that scares the hell out of me. The man is brilliant and has been predicting this exact situation for a couple of years. They don't call him Dr. Doom for nothing.

Does anyone else find it a little odd that our entire economy is wrapped around credit? I understand why it works, but maybe we need to rethink the credit paradigm.

I'll comment more tomorrow after I read the details.

3%

That's the percentage of the electorate that the debate was targeting, meaning voters that were using the debate to help them decide who to vote for.

Stratfor's Part 4 of its foreign policy debate series.

As I stated previously, I didn't see a clear tactical winner. From what I'm reading in punditland (both sides), it seems that there is a perception that Obama won strategically because he appeared presidential, thus alleviating any concerns of any fence sitters.

Not Quite Inspiring

But at least it wasn't concrete. 9 mile run this morning, with only about 1/2 mile of it being on concrete. I found my canal bank! My favorite parts were the amazing sunrise as the sun comes over the Superstition Mountains, the roadrunner that ran across my path, and the two floppy eared hound dogs that were sharing the yard with about five broken down vehicles baying at me. Not a bad way to start the weekend.

Debate Notes

My comments in bold:

McCain's opening statement was a little weird. "We Republicans" – out of control spending and corruption (uh, you're a Republican John)

McCain – Obama wants to increase spending by $300B (nice jab)

Obama – focus spending on health care and education – spend money wisely – help middle class instead of the rich

McCain – 11% business tax in Ireland vs 35% tax in U.S. means we need to cut taxes on businesses (great point until Obama follows up)

McCain – raise taxes slows down business

Obama – tax loopholes for businesses mean that businesses have lowest tax rates in the world (and a left hook)

Obama – have to have energy independence (10 years), environment, health care (didn't like that he didn't answer the question about what he would give up)

McCain – cut spending, eliminate ethanol subsidies, do away with cost plus contracts in the military (direct answer to the question)

McCain – saved taxpayer $6.6B (Boeing and DOD)

McCain – spending freeze except for Defense, veterans, entitlements (that's what I'm talking about)

Obama – hatchet instead of a scalpel(nice one)

McCain – nuclear power (700,000 new jobs)(double whammy - energy independence and jobs)

Obama – have to trust the values of the candidate (amen and he's shown better overall judgment)

McCain – doesn’t want to hand health care over to the federal government (talking point)

McCain - $800B in new spending via Obama (whoa nelly!)

Obama – McCain agreed with Bush 90% of the time, presided over deficits and increase in spending – (keeps slamming this home)

Obama – against Iraq from the beginning, spent $1T, lost 4000 troops, Al Qaeda is resurgent in Afghanistan, spending $10B a month, when Iraq has $79B surplus, borrowing money for basic functions

McCain – Obama said surge wouldn’t work, but Obama recently said that surge worked (it sucks when you're wrong)

Obama – better judgment based upon 2003, McCain pretends war started in 2007 (one of the top three lines of the night)

McCain – Obama doesn’t understand difference between tactic and a strategy (that's gotta hurt)

Obama – better judgment. McCain took eye off the ball and said we could muddle through Afghanistan (another top three line of the night)

McCain - Obama's initial reaction to the Georgia/Russia crisis showed inexperience (major foreign policy point in McCain's favor. why won't McCain look Obama in the eye?)

After that, it started to get slow and less interesting. McCain's focus on pork was nice until you realize that pork is only $18B out of a $3T plus budget. Peanuts in the grand scheme of things.

McCain's reference to Obama's naivety and his experience was his driving theme. Obama's was his judgment. McCain was better than expected on the economy, until Obama started hammering him on tax cuts for the rich.

McCain had the tactical advantage on foreign affairs with his knowledge of everything foreign and hammered him on the "no preconditions" before talks with axis of evil heads of state, but Obama's better judgment on Iraq in 2003 and Afghanistan (the muddle comment was brilliant) makes it about even for me.

Both had good poise. I liked the format. Obama took the initiative by talking to McCain first. McCain's creepy smile and using his nickname to refer to himself was a little odd. He obviously despises Obama.

Both appeared presidential and no major gaffes. Maybe next time.

Economists' Voice

Some questions for Paulson and Bernanke.

A better way?

Cato

Some history and a minimalist approach.

And an interesting podcast with Arnold Kling("Bailouts and Uncertainty").

"The day after the bail-out passes, the market is going to grind to a halt."

Deficits and Debt

You've seen me rail against debt lately. The problem is that during prosperous times (the last 6 or 7 years), the government has been running massive deficits (spending more than it takes in). This is due to three major items: the Bush tax cuts (yea!), the enlargement of Medicare(BOO!), and Iraq (DOUBLE BOO!). Where did the money come from then? We borrowed it from China (and other countries) by issuing debt (i.e., Treasuries). A lot of it. Almost $5 trillion, effectively doubling the debt and increasing the debt as a % of GDP (domestic productivity) from just below 60% to almost 70%.

Now deficits are not always bad. In bad times, deficit spending can help jump start the economy (see The New Deal) by injecting cash into the economy. However, we were deficit spending in good times. Unprecedented deficit spending.

Which leads us to today. We can't deficit spend our way out of this mess without long term negative ramifications to the dollar, inflation, and GDP. Pardon my French, but it's truly f*&$ed up. We're already in a serious hole and now we're going to dig it deeper.

Our options will be to raise taxes to pay for the debt (which will slow down growth) or just throw caution to the wind and let the dogs of hyperinflation loose (just print more money) in order to make the debt cheaper to pay off (which completely screws us over - just think Zimbabwe today or Germany in the 20s).

I honestly have no idea how we are going to get out of this mess. We need to see massive GDP growth (highly unlikely anytime soon) or cut both discretionary (things like defense and farm aid) and non-discretionary spending (things like Social Security and Medicare) off at the knees (a sure political loser).

Here's hoping for people much higher than my pay grade to solve this. Now I need a drink.

Here IT Is

The Mother of All Bail-outs.

Where are the details?

Equity sharing: How much? What type?

Profits to pay back the debt: How much? By when?

The debt sickens me. Unless the government is going to increase my income to pay for the inflation tax that it is about to laid at my feet via the printing press and more debt, this should not pass (I'm picturing myself as Gandalf shouting at the Balrog in Moria). We're heading for Zimbabwe territory.

I'm calling and emailing all of my elected representatives again.

The Bail-Out

What if one of the presidential candidates votes against the bail-out? Another game changer.

Discretion

Interesting little post on Volokh regarding the amount of distribution discretion (i.e., equity warrants, executive compensation, and help for homeowners) Dodd's and Paulson's plans have.

Part 3 - McCain

McCain's foreign policy stance via Stratfor.

The history lessons that this series is providing are exceptional. Rather than just looking at stated positions from each candidate, Friedman is looking at each party's foreign policy traditions and what that potentially means for each candidate.

Friday Debate

Some of you might not like the direction I'm headed, but Senator McCain's political stunt in refusing to debate Senator Obama Friday evening is an utter joke. Now IS exactly the time for a debate. Let us see the choices before us. Let us understand what they are thinking in the heat of the moment without their scripted and vetted talking points.

As if the past two weeks haven't provided enough evidence of McCain's lack of knowledge of economics and finance, this cancellation for the benefit of the country trumps his populism/socialism/or whatever flavor of the dayism that he keeps coming up with. I predict that this little gimmick will help speed up the erosion of his support. Although with more than a month to go, who knows what else could happen. Afghanistan could erupt or we could invade Iran.

At the end of the day, we're all going to need to have a gut check when we go to the voting booth. That gut check for me will be all about judgement and pragmatism in moments of both peace and crisis. It's becoming clear to me who that person is.

Bailout Necessary?

Some think not. The summary on RGE here.

Other alternatives via the Washington Post.

The trillion dollar question is, what happens without a bailout? Will credit markets really completely fail? Will all of the institutions that are currently holding these securities go the way of Lehman? How many bankruptcies is too many?

Ok, that was more than one. Shoot me.

Getting It Right?

From the WSJ Opinion page.

This is an interesting idea. Use the bail-out to buy homes, and in some cases neighborhoods, and demolish them. Get rid of the toxic supply. NIMBY of course.

I'm still wondering why I haven't seen many people talking or pressing on the issue of how we are funding this bail-out (increasing the public debt by ~10%).

Devotion

I have always been a political junkie. Few things get my mind and heart racing more than politics. It's fun, entertaining, and helps prevent brain atrophy. Most of the time, aside from my favorite P&E (Politics and Economics) links over to the left, I keep these topics off my blog. I do this for several reasons:

1. There is already a glut of high quality content out there.
2. I hate parroting back simply what I've read or heard.
3. I usually have nothing original to say regarding the topic (see #2).
4. My audience of two just isn't into politics the same way that I am and I'd hate to drive my readership away (i.e., it would be a bad marketing decision).
5. Running in Arizona just isn't as inspiring as running in NorCal or Westchester or even NYC.

However, as you have seen, I've recently begun changing my self-imposed policy. My ardor for politics has not changed, but the events that are taking place right now are too important for me not to express what I'm thinking and feeling (yes, I do feel).

I will continue to sporadically post about my running adventures, as they happen and as they inspire me, but for the immediate future, expect to see more links to political and economic articles that contain topics and opinions that I believe are important. I know that many of you ignore these topics, but (and here is where the editorialist in me escapes), you do so at your own peril. The events and decisions that we as friends, family, communities, and as a nation are faced with today will affect your day to day lives for a generation. It is that important.

Part 2 - Obama

Stratfor's Part 2 of 4: Obama's Foreign Policy Stance.

Beyond Outrage

The size of this potential bail-out (all funded by debt - that means we'll (and I'm including your children in that we) be paying for it for the next 50 years through our taxes) is making me physically ill.

Privatized profit and socialized losses are what we are looking at. And that is clearly unacceptable. The only way to do this is to swap this terrible debt (at prices well below book value) for majority equity stakes (i.e., control).

Write your Representatives and your Senators and voice your opinion.

An Open Letter to Secretary Paulson.

Virtue

"A virtuous leader is one who is clever, cunning, decisive, ruthless and, above all, effective." - Machiavelli

In preparation for the debates beginning this Friday: Part 1 of 4 presented by Stratfor, a top (in my opinion, the top) independent foreign policy think tank.

This is a non-partisan series. The editors of Stratfor have staffers who ardently support each candidate and who are standing by "...to crush" any perceived unfairness toward either candidate. Great reading.

The Socialist Bailout

Led by our favorite Republican.

My favorite line is from Gary Hart:

"I know why you are conservatives -- you favor private enterprise for the poor and socialism for the rich."

Summary of a Crisis

Very good read on the current financial mess. Yes, it's on Kos, but it's the best I've read so far.

And another on the potential cost of doing nothing.

For The Record

I get really angry when I run here in Arizona. Concrete drives me batty.

269

Please let this scenario happen. According to the Poll of Polls, I can see it.

Only look at the toss-up states.

For Obama:
CO
PA
MI
WI
MN

For McCain:
NV
MT
IN
OH
WV
VA
NH

Although with the economy on the forefront of everyones' minds (with the Republicans having been at the helm) and with the majority of Americans scared to death of a potential President Palin, this is probably unlikely (meaning Obama probably wins OH, IN, and/or VA).

Go Chaos!

In Keeping With The Season

Very interesting reading (open the PDF) that only looks at the tax side of the equation (nothing about spending, which is rarely cut anyway - cue the great sucking sound).

Tax Policy Center estimates of each candidates' tax plans.

For general tax/spending projections:

Congressional Budget Office

And just for giggles, one of my favorite Flash creations ever:

Death and Taxes

And for a state by state electoral map look (forget national polling, it is irrelevant):

Pollster

In Honor of Marvin

Liz recently posted about moving mountains. The genesis of this post was our watching Sicko. We both enjoy Michael Moore and even though we(i.e., I) don't always agree with his politics, he sure does know how to make an entertaining movie. My favorite part of Sicko was when he wrote a check to cover one of his critic's wife's medical bills. Like I said, if nothing else (and I do think there is something else), Moore is an entertainer. One of my favorite moments is his Charleton Heston (may he rest in peace) ambush in Bowling for Columbine. It's not often that a movie makes me squirm.

But I digress. Moving Mountains. The day after we watched Sicko, we were driving (we always seem to be driving in Az.) and Liz was doing her communication thing, which I stand in awe of, and I couldn't find anything to say (which wasn't that surprising). We talked about our passions and using those to build the foundation of some tool that we would then use to build a better world.

Liz's task is easy (to me). She has so many passions and more importantly talent that she just needs to pick and do. Me, that's a different story.

My passions (in no particular order and excluding family):

- Running
- Politics
- Um
- I swear I have another one
- Still thinking

It's interesting. People have commented to myself and Liz that I am difficult to decipher because I don't say much and that I must be thinking about really heady stuff. Well, let me clear that up. Here's a sample of my brain activity when I'm not speaking.

"--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------."

It's that exciting.

So here I am, approaching the peak of my intellectual powers, with two passions and without an extraordinary amount of talent in either one (this is NOT a not so silent plea for affirmation), and I have nothing interesting to use them on. Even worse might be the realization that my powers are unfortunately, not super. All I've ever wanted to do was to turn into a pterodactyl (why did the girl always get to turn into cool creatures and the boy was always stuck being a pail of water?)

In other news, twice this past week on separate flights, I thought for an instant that I was going to die. Flying does not freak me out. I've logged too many miles. However, there are occasions when something happens that hasn't happened the other 80 times I've flown this year and death does cross the mind. The weird part is what I thought about in those two instances.

"Well, this will be interesting. Or not" I probably would have been bored two minutes after dying anyway.

What To Do

when the client has taken away all of your resources and is still requiring the same amount of work?

Download NIN and make angry faces across the hall. A little fist pump doesn't hurt either.

It does wonders for business case and Powerpoint productivity.

And if angry, whiney Trent doesn't do it, Paul O. just might.

Reading

As with most things that have to do with this blog, my Reading Now section has been sorely in need of an update. I can't even remember when I read "A Swiftly Tilting Planet". I do know that I've read many books since then. One of my favorites was March. You'll notice that I continue to be on my novel kick.

I'm currently reading (and have been for quite a while)The Brothers Karamazov. I knew that this book was about a murder. I just didn't know that it would take 400+ pages to get to the murder. Don't get me wrong. Those 400 very dense pages were very entertaining, especially Father Zosima's musings on his youth and Fyodor's buffoon act at the monastery. However, I just didn't expect a book that revolves around a murder to have that murder take place more than halfway through the book.

That might have been Dostoevsky's intent. When it finally became apparent that something was going to happen, the crescendo building up to the murder was overpowering and I couldn't put the book down. It's a good thing that I have lots of hotel and flight time because there is no way I could have gone that last 100 pages uninterrupted at home.

So now poor Dmitri is being questioned by the police and it again appears that something strange is going on between himself and his two (three?) brothers. I'm looking forward to my flight home tomorrow night for more than one reason it appears.

Two Months?

It's been two months since I posted? What? During the past two months, I didn't finish an ultramarathon, I did pack up and move, I experienced summer and now fall in Seattle, I bought a house, I ran by Steve Ballmer, I've started running simply for the love, I almost killed three other people on one of my runs for the love, and I've started Yelping all of the restaurants I've ever eaten at (I'm only about 10% through and sorry Phoenix, but the highest rating I've given to one of your restaurants is 3 out of 5).

For Life

The Westin in Bellevue has me for life. If I'm anywhere in the Seattle area, this hotel is where I will be staying at (assuming someone else is paying for it of course).

Last night, I went out for an 8 mile run. Gorgeous sunny evening (the sun doesn't go down until about 10pm). Bellevue is right on Lake Washington, so I decided to follow the shore and ran to Kirkland (yes, the town that headquarters Costco).

Upon my return to the hotel, one of the doormen ran up to me with a bottle of water, handed it to me, and asked me how my run went. A bottle of water at the door. Now that is service.

Mice

My dear sister, Beja, is taking pictures of our home as it is being constructed. I am pleased to tell you that we have lots of cabinets. In other words, we have many places for mice to hang out. Now I love mice droppings as much as the next cowboy and I'm more than happy to let them hang out in my garage and nibble on my cardboard to their smart little hearts content, but c'mon, this is getting a little ridiculous.

You can tell looking at our home that the builder picked out items that would be pleasing to both your typical guy and your typical gal. (I know what you're thinking Liz, "Hey, we're not typical. We're like rock star skateboarder drummers. The coolest people on the block." Well you might be baby, but this farsighted guy in his khaki pants and his white board loving brain, most definitely is. Please keep holding up the cool flag for the family because cool, if ever it resided within this physical body, has long since fled.) That was a long tangent. Sorry.

So back to the house and the gender appealing typicalness aspects of it. Lots of cabinets, back yard, high ceilings, bouncy carpet, spacious master bedroom, bedrooms close to the master bedroom, etc, etc were definitely created and designed with a woman in mind. In fact, I didn't remember anything about these features until I recently looked at Beja's photostream.

Appealing to the male gender, a tower. A tower. A freaking tower. Sold. Honestly, I couldn't have cared less about anything else. "Yes, Mr. Realtor, you may show me other homes, but only if they too offer a tower. No tower, no deal." (Thank you Dale by the way.)

When I looked at Beja's photostream today and saw all of the cabinets, instead of being all aflutter, I thought of rodents. Tiny little rodent dwellings. I hope they don't offer me sweets and then attempt to slice open my brain to take a peek.

In more interesting news, my diarrhea spree of four days has finally ceased. Just in time for my first ultramarathon (50k or 31.07 miles with 9200 feet of climbing) this weekend. Pictures will be forthcoming. Let's hear it for my 60 year old father running it with me and one of my brothers. You are the man!

Err, Seattle

I'm in Seattle four days a week for the next four to six months. It rains in Seattle. I'm not that fond of running in the rain. So today, I ran on a treadmill for the first time since last summer. However, it was a little bit different than last summer, as I was doing speed work on the treadmill and today, I was just running. However, I must say that as awful as running on a treadmill is, the technology has come a long way. I'll check the make/model of the treadmill that I'm using, but it had some cool features.

- A picture of a mountain on the display
- A dot representing me climbing the mountain
- A red line showing me where I had run

I ran 6 miles (it was all I could stand - it was a treadmill) and gained 600 feet over the first four miles, with over half of that being in the last mile. It was a decent run. I'm more excited to get out in the morning at 5am and run some of these hills. I do have a race coming up that I'm not the slightest bit prepared for.

30

30 degrees. Yesterday at the 2008 Mt. Diablo Marathon, it was 30 degrees warmer than any of my previous training runs up and down that mountain. Not yesterday. It was in the 80s. And that my friends is a recipe for pain.

Here's the elevation profile. That's 10,100 feet of elevation gain. To put that into perspective, you want to die going up about 1 mile into it. And then when you head down 2300 feet between miles 20 and 23, you want to die again.



I have many pictures. All of them taken on the run. More for me to help me recall why I should never do something like this again.

Here's a picture of my buddy Eric and I at the beginning. Note the 20 things on our belt. We don't travel light.



This is the start of the race. 90 people ran the marathon and 110 people ran the 50 miler. This guy was obviously running the 50.



And we're off. The race was mostly on single track trails, which made passing difficult and preventing getting passed (me) easy.



Cresting Eagle Peak (2300 feet of gain in 3 miles - nice) and running along the spine before dropping back down.



The dude in green shorts caught up to me. But I didn't let him pass me.



I like scenery. It makes me smile inside.



Lots of growth. Much rain this year.



Did I mention that there is lots of walking involved in this ultra-like events?



Pain and only 6 miles into it. Also, I have pretty large nostrils.



The top of the observation deck at the top of Diablo. 7.5 miles down. 18.7 miles to go. I actually felt pretty good at this point, which will partially explain why I felt so bad later.



Fuller's got some self-photography skills on the way down the first time.



The California poppies are out in force this year.



I've now gone down and am headed back up the second time. I have consumed about 80 ounces of liquid fuel (Perpeteum), 1200mg of Sodium, and 4 100 calorie caffeine gels. I need to invent liquid steak.



This face doesn't do justice to how I felt.



This one might. Notice that my right eye is more shut than my left. Always a dead giveaway that Mike is either tired or dead.



My favorite part of the course when I don't feel like dying.



Honestly, I don't remember taking this picture.



I soon finished. In 6 hours and 33 minutes. Just under a 4mph pace. Yikes. Eric finished about 13 minutes in front of me. I finished 27th out of 79 finishers. In the last 6 miles, about 7 people passed me, including Eric.

Here are my toes. The right one is particularly jacked.



And my dirty legs.



Even with the massive fluid and caloric intake, I lost 7 pounds during the race. Of course I gained it back and more by the end of the day. Mmmmm, lasagna.

Not Ready

I'm not ready for a 50 miler yet. In two weeks, I'll be running the marathon only. I believe in a two week taper, so yesterday was my last big run. It was the first time I went up the mountain twice. 5 hours to cover 21 miles (9000 feet of elevation gain). I'm hoping to break 6 hours on race day, but I kind of doubt that will happen. All of that up and down seriously kills me. Particularly the down. I will be bringing a camera on race day. The mountain is perfect. I caught my breath more than once yesterday with the sun beginning to set, the dark green hills, and more flowers than you can imagine. I don't have the words. It was amazing.

Addiction

I almost don't like sharing my running experiences anymore with anyone other than Liz. I'm usually pretty self-deprecating, but how can you be self-deprecating about a 23 mile run up and down a mountain or regular running weeks of 60+ miles. It just comes off as either psychotic or bragging, neither of which are words I want to be associated with. So I'll tell you about this past Saturday's run, but going forward, unless I'm running a race, I probably will no longer write about the mileage and elevation gain of my training runs.

The reason is that I crossed an imaginary line on Saturday. A line that spoke to me as I crossed it and said, "You should go 30 miles next week and go up and down Diablo twice." I didn't even flinch when I heard that voice. In fact, I thought to myself, that sounds like fun. So that most of my friends are able to understand, it's like the leap from marijuana to cocaine. It's a line that you don't think you're ever going to cross and then one day you wake up with your face in a pile of the white stuff and an M-16 lying on your desk. You don't really know why it happened, but man you feel pretty good.

So I'm in virgin running territory and I don't think I'm going to deny this addiction or step back over the line. April 12th is now about to become a 50 mile race (assuming the race director gives me the ok).

I haven't graduated to heroin yet. I don't see a 100 miler any time soon, but I'm not opposed to one in the future. The needle is there. I know it's coming. It's simply how long I can put it off.

6000

Yesterday I did a 20 mile trail run that had 6000 feet of gross elevation gain. Half of that was in the second five miles. Completely unplanned and totally sick. The top of Mt. Diablo just didn't seem that far away. Running through a mid-calf-deep stream that criss-crossed the trail 10 times at the bottom of the mountain felt great. I can't say that my quads are happy today, but I promise you that I'm going to do that again within the next two weeks.

Zen

I had a lazy winter (my apologies to those that are still experiencing winter - here in the Bay Area, winter was about three weeks long, with lots of rain and lows in the mid-30s - it is now sunny and in the 70s again). I only ran about 15 miles a week and packed on about 10 pounds. As you saw from the elevation profiles below, that particular program won't work for what I have on my calendar. Two weeks ago, I started ramping up my miles.

Going from 15 miles a week to 45 miles a week is not recommended. Surprisingly, I'm simply weary and a little tight. Maybe muscle memory does last longer than a month. Or maybe I'm just going to break down in another week.

My training for the April 12th race is simple:

M - 8 mile hill run (two massive hills)
Tu - 6 mile flat recovery run
W - 10 mile hill run (two massive hills and one smallish hill)
Th - 6 mile flat recovery run
F - 6 mile flat junk mile run
Sa - 14 - 22 mile hill run
Su - off

No tempo runs. No speed work. No watch. That's right, no watch. Either someone else has a watch or I map out the run beforehand to figure out the distance. I don't plan on picking up a watch until after the June 21st 50k. It's all about getting a large mileage base in preparation of going under 3 hours in a fall marathon.

For past marathons, I've relied on a 16 to 20 week program, again going from 15 to 45 miles in a week, lots of speed work, and my genetics to get me to the finish line in under my goal time. That almost worked last year at St. George, missing 3 hours by 2:07. I'm not leaving it to talent this year. My entire running year is dedicated to crushing 3 hours.

Six months of base and strength building followed by three months of sharpening and speed work should do it.

New Plan

April 12th - Mt. Diablo Marathon. Something to keep me busy during the winter.

June 21 (tentative) - Pacifica 50k. Maybe a family event.

$7B

"FRENCH TRADER'S PROBLEMS UNCOVERED

FRIENDS of rogue trader Jerome Kerviel last night blamed his $7 billion losses on unbearable levels of stress brought on by a punishing 30 hour week.

Kerviel was known to start work as early as nine in the morning and still be at his desk at five or even five-thirty, often with just an hour and a half for lunch.

One colleague said: "He was, how you say, une workaholique. I have a family and a mistress so I would leave the office at around 2pm at the latest, if I wasn't on strike.

"But Jerome was tied to that desk. One day I came back to the office at 3pm because I had forgotten my stupid little hat, and there he was, fast asleep on the photocopier.

"At first I assumed he had been having sex with it, but then I remembered he'd been working for almost six hours."

As the losses mounted, Kerviel tried to conceal his bad trades by covering them with an intense red wine sauce, later switching to delicate pastry horns.

At one point he managed to dispose of dozens of transactions by hiding them inside vol-au-vent cases and staging a fake reception.

Last night a spokesman for Sócíété Générálé denied that Kerviel was overworked, insisting he lost the money after betting that the French were about to stop being rude, lazy, arrogant b.....ds."

Next

Mt. Diablo 50k in June.

Here's the elevation profile:



That'd be 8900 ft of elevation gain. Ouch. That'll build me a nice base for a fast fall marathon.

BROOOOKLYN!

This is a picture of the young men that I was responsible for in Brooklyn. We'd have a Xbox night at my place every 6 weeks or so. Order pizza. Have extra TVs and Xboxes.

Here in the Bay Area, I have also been asked help with the young men. However, the activities and make-up of these two groups are very different. First, we went ice skating where not only the girls, but the boys knew what they were doing. Second, when I was giving a few of them a ride home, one boy told me that he lived in a mansion. I smiled. Then we pulled up to his mansion. Four people, 8000 sq ft home. Six cars in the driveway, including a Maseratti, a Porsche, and a cheap old Acura. And those were the ones that didn't make it into the garage.

SGM Pic

I realized I never posted a picture. This is me right before Mile 23. Right before I decided that I couldn't take the massive amounts of calf pain anymore.

Pool Review

I was checking out the official length of my pool and ran across this review of another community pool that isn't too far away.

"Good News: Outdoor, 25 yards, kickboards, clocks.

The Bad News: TEN dollars. In (blank). You bastards are lucky I'm in this shit town to begin with and I have to pay ten bucks to swim? You should pay me for bringing some life into snoresville. But I digress.

Details: Bring some sandals, because you have to walk over the rock-embedded, foot-thrashing concrete that surrounds the indoor pool to get to the outdoor pool. Some negligent mother let her kid wander into my lane but I showed him who was boss in this town in no time. I'm doing fly, kid- take that! I don't pay ten dollars so I can be polite to some commune-raised hippie brat who calls his mom "Sarah.""

So Serious

I went swimming for the first time in over three years this morning. I found out that swimmers are just as anal as cyclists are. Apparently you must inform the other swimmers in your lane prior to beginning your laps that you will be swimming in their lane. Additionally, if there are only two people in your lane, you stay on the same side of the lane. If there are more than two people, you circle, which is how I swim if there are at least two people. If you don't follow these rules, they'll stop you in the middle of the pool just to let you know that you've broken the rules.

Also, don't pay cash to get in or the entire line will groan. Finally, a speedo is required or you are laughed at.

I'm glad that I now have two sports whose participants I don't like. I was getting bored only hating cyclists.

Just swam an easy 900 this morning. I'll probably be swimming twice a week until I start training seriously for a race again, at which point I'll drop swimming for the boring exercise that it is.

Sakae Sushi

Just in case you were wondering, Sakae Sushi has the best sushi I've ever eaten. That includes all the sushi I consumed in New York and Japan. Granted, I didn't have the pockets to go to the uber-nice sushi places while I was in Japan, but still, I ate some pretty quality sushi.

My favorites:

- Barracuda - flown in from Japan daily - very rich and meaty
- Bluefin Red Tuna - also flown in from Japan daily - almost steaklike
- Uni - shipped up from Monterey daily - super sweet with a texture that wasn't too firm and wasn't too slimey
- Oh-toro - This place has three grades of toro (fatty tuna belly). This grade is the fattiest. As I eat it, all I'm thinking is that I want to rub it all over my body and then lick it off. It's that good.

Who am I kidding, it is all outstanding.

Ageism

The other day I was running in the foothills with a friend. We wanted to do 11 miles and didn't want to run over the same ground twice, so we stopped at a trail map to check out where we could go. As we investigated the map, we heard runners coming. I couldn't see them, but could tell from their voices that it was a group of women. My friend looked at me and said we better go so we wouldn't have to pass them on the trail. So we headed up the trail.

About a minute later, the voices were right behind us. We were in a canyon, so I figured it was just acoustics of the canyon that made it seem as if they were right behind us. After another minute, I finally figured out that they were right behind us. Embarrassed, I moved over to the right, heard a little "Thank you" and watched three young girls run by us.

They couldn't have been more then 14 or 15. And they were blowing past us. Now let me say that were were not trying to run fast. Leisurely 8 minute miles through the hills. We'd also been running for 5 miles with 6 to go and they probably had only been running for 1 with 5 to go (we were on a popular 6 mile loop). However, we still got blown by by three teenage girls.

My friend and I were silent for a few minutes. I broke the silence by saying that that was unexpected. He responded by saying that the girl in the lead "looked good". I was a little shocked. He noticed my shock and quickly said, "You know, her running form. It looked good."

Yep, these are the kind of people I run with.

Weight Loss

Apparently the best way to lose that last 5 pounds that you've wanted to lose for the past year is to cut your mileage by 75% and drink cases of Diet Dr. Pepper, both of which I've done in the past three weeks. It's the new South Beach.

So Close

3:02:06. A PR of 6:40.

I was on track for a 2:58 through mile 17. At mile 18, my calfs began to seriously cramp and I couldn't get much push. I would do 7:10s uphill and then 6:40s downhill. At mile 23, I was on track for a 2:59, but my calfs began to scream. No push at all, but all I needed was to go at 7:00 pace for the last 3.2 miles. It was not to be. I had nothing left.

I'm not disappointed with the effort because I gave it everything yesterday. I'm a little disappointed with my preparation. Not enough LT runs or downhill training.

I'll probably take a week off and spend the following six weeks training for CIM on December 2.

Taper Madness

When running a marathon, you get to experience something called the taper. A taper is what you do two to three weeks before your marathon. Essentially, you chill out on your mileage in order to give your body time to heal and to store up glycogen.

For this training cycle, I chose a two week taper. Much of the literature out there says that if you're running less than 60 or 70 miles a week, which I am, then you only need a two week taper. Last week, I ran 53 miles. This week, I have cut my mileage back to 29 miles. Next week I'll only run about 17 miles before the marathon on Saturday.

Now tapering is a difficult thing to do. My body is ready for a race. It's been training for almost 19 weeks and is in the best shape of my life. Seriously, the best shape of my life including high school. Cutting back on miles is difficult. I feel lazy and feel like I'm losing speed. At the same time, I have aches and pains that are telling me that I don't have what it takes to go under 3. My shin splint in my lower left leg is telling me that it's a possible stress fracture, when I know full well that it's just a shin splint.

Finally, I am having to think about what I eat. When you're running 50+ miles a week, you can eat whatever you want and I do. When you're running less than 30 miles a week, you can't eat that much. In addition, cutting out the grease and fat becomes essential in cleaning out your system. Going to bed hungry because you're used to 1000+ calorie dinners and you just ate 500 calories with no ice cream is somewhat dissatisfying.

As you can tell, I am slowly going crazy and I need to race already.

24 Miler

My last big training run was this past Saturday. 24 miles. A friend from San Mateo came up to run it with me. It was about 65 degrees and raining. In other words, almost perfect. I like running in the rain, as it cools me down. I felt great the entire time and we finished just under 3 hours. I wasn't trying to push it and felt that I definitely have what it takes to go under 3. Two weeks to go time.

JP Morgan Chase Corporate Challenge (3.5M)

I wasn't planning on running this race, as I haven't raced anything under a 1/2 marathon in about 7 years and haven't done anything under a 10k in about 16 years, but my firm, more specifically, my office, appealed to my ego and asked that I represent my firm/office, as they knew that I could easily beat the fastest time from all of the other offices (24:50). So I decided to do it.

6:30pm last night at Crissy Field right next to the Golden Gate bridge. Very flat, simple 3.5 mile loop. I arrived and as soon as I got out of my car, I knew that I'd made a mistake in not bringing warmups. It was about 20 degrees colder than where I live and there was 20mph wind coming in from the ocean. Nice. Fortunately, we started and finished with a tailwind. However, the middle 1.75 miles were a little onerous.

Before I get to those miles, let me back up. This was not a chipped race. The only clock was the race clock, which meant that I was fighting 5000 other people to start up front. Lots of elbows. I was about 3 rows back, which was fine because there were some serious runners out. Like sub-5 minute mile runners. The last thing I wanted to do was get in their way.

The gun went off and off we went. First mile was at 5:58. I wanted it to be faster, but congestion and some tight turns slowed me down a little. Then we turned into the wind. I tried drafting, but the wind was whipping too much and each person I tried drafting off of was either too fast or too slow, so I ended up running the next 1.75 miles straight into the wind. Not too fun. I don't have my exact splits, but looking at my finish time, I'd say they were in the 6:25 - 6:33 range.

As I was approacing the turnaround, I saw the leaders headed back and they were seriously flying. I heard afterwards about the tactics employed and was pretty impressed. Apparently about a 1/4 mile before the turnaround, a breakaway into the wind occured. Then once at the turnaround, the 3 leaders really took off since they now had the wind at their back while everyone else was still headed into it. Smart tactics.

At the turnaround, I finally got the wind out of my face and picked it back up. At mile 3, I really picked it up because I wanted to beat 22 minutes. With about a 1/4 mile to go, I wanted to vomit and remembered why I don't really enjoy these shorter races. I finished in 21:48 for a 6:14 average.

I didn't push as hard as I could have, particularly during the headwind portion of the course and raced it more like a 10k, but was still ok with the time. I probably finished in the top 150, but won't know for sure for a couple of days.

EDIT: I finished 101st out of 5200

Clueless

I seriously have no idea where my fitness is. If I had to predict a time for St. George, it would be anywhere between 2:58 and 3:15. This might just be because I've been training for 17 1/2 weeks and my body is completely broken down. It might also be because I'm just getting older, but I only have one fast day a week in me and my right glut is pretty sore all the time. I'm going to push it tomorrow, omitting the hill, and see where I'm at. Two more long runs (an 18 and a 24) and then it's off to the races.

Nocturnal Rack

As I began my 22 mile run at 8:30pm last night (again, I have problems), little did I know that I would end up witnessing one of the most glorious racks that I'd ever seen on the Iron Horse Trail. Truly, it was magnificent.

Usually on the trail, I don't see many racks at all. In fact, I don't recall ever seeing one. I didn't expect to see one last night either. It was after all perfectly dark (there are no lights on this trail), but when my headlight spotted two eyes up ahead (and at eye level), I was stunned to see an 8 point buck standing in the middle of the trail just watching me go by.

I'm very glad that he didn't decide to lower his head and charge, as it was at about mile 18 and I was pretty beat.

Getting home a little after 11, icing for an hour, then finally eating dinner around midnight while I watched the History Channel is all something I'd rather not repeat next week, particularly because next week's run is 24 miles.

Sharpening

It's finally happening. This sharpening thing. This past Saturday on a 20 mile, very hilly trail run, I had a reserve of energy and speed that I didn't know existed. At one point, I was actually sprinting up a hill, at mile 15 feeling great. Today, during my speed workout (6 x 1600s), I ran my last 1600 in 5:44. The only reason I didn't do a 7th was due to time. It just might all be coming together.

1:27:44

That was my 1/2 marathon time on Saturday. 6:42 average. I'm moderately happy with this time. In order to run a sub-3 hour marathon, all of the calculators say that you need to run a 1/2 marathon in 1:25, which I really wasn't close to. However, I didn't taper for this race and actually ran hard on both Thursday and Friday. So, moderately happy. I have hope.

I also now have a blister on my left big toe that pretty much encompasses the entire right half of the toe. That's what happens when you wear your racing flats. Shoes that you haven't worn in about 3 months. I needed every advantage I could get for "race" day on Saturday. "Race" because it was only four of us and we weren't racing each other, only the clock. Everyone seemed pretty happy with their times.

I'm thinking of wearing my racing flats for the marathon. I'll run in them during my interval workouts and maybe my medium long days (10 - 13 miles usually on Thursday) and see how it goes. After the "race", I took my flats off, put my trainers on, and ran another 5 miles. My trainers felt like bricks. Bricks do not enable one to run fast. I might try thicker socks to stem off the globe-sized blisters.

Three of the next four weeks have me running in the high 50s, low 60s for mileage. Let's tear down this body even more.

The Dead Zone

I'm entering a phase in my training where I'm simply tired of training. Mentally, not physically. It's been 12.5 weeks, with 7.5 weeks to go and mentally I'm barely hanging on.

Last Saturday's 20 miler that began well, was a disaster in the middle (stomach issues), and exhausting (dehydration) at the end didn't help. The subsequent 24 hours of blood and mucous didn't thrill me either.

I need a vacation.

Dead Legs

Last week, I was completely shredded. Dead Leg City. Every step was like I was running in mud. Therefore, I took this week as a serious recovery/step-back week. I'm only running three times. However, two of those three runs are serious. On Tuesday, I ran 5 1600 repeats. On the treadmill of course at an elevation of 1. First mile after my 1 mile warmup was at 7:03 (speed warmup). Mile 2 was at 6:38. Mile 3 at 6:18 and miles 4 and 5 were at 6:00. The crazy thing was that I felt great. I haven't had a speed workout like that in years. I'm hoping that it wasn't an illusion. I'm running a casual 6 tomorrow and an 18 miler on Saturday, with 9 miles of it being at 6:48 pace. So while the mileage is down, I have two intense workouts.

Cutting back this week has been great. No falling asleep while driving and I've been strong for once. Next week, back to the 50 mile weeks.

One more note. I ran a 22 miler last Saturday. I don't know if other runners experience this, but when I stop running any time after 18 miles, the pain is so intense that I usually audibly moan in pain. It's only when I stop though. Very odd.

Warming Up

Today I learned the value of a good warmup. It's Tuesday. My speed workout day. Typically, I run a 1 mile warmup, then do a speed warmup 800 or 1600, running at right about marathon pace. Then, I go into my actual workout. Today, I was scheduled to run 5 1600s. However, I was running a little late and decided to forego my speed warmup. Big mistake. I was done after my 2nd 1600. Tried #3 and was almost thrown off the treadmill because I was already dead tired.

Now this might have been because I was dead tired. Five to six hours of sleep ten days in a row will do that, but I also think it was because the shock of not being properly warmed up completely threw my body for a loop.

The really funny thing is that I can run faster eight miles into a run than I can one mile into a run.

Last Week

51 miles last week. Pretty good week. Only 16 on Saturday, but that was planned. No real soreness. This week is a doozy. 57 miles, with a 22er on Saturday.

Artistic Purity

I was reading a post on Drew Carey as the new Price Is Right host on Metafilter earlier today and a comment on how Drew just lost all of his artistic purity credentials by selling out as a gameshow host caused me to laugh out loud. Just the phrase "artistic purity" cracks me up. I'll leave it to your imaginations as to why.

So this morning's run. Definitely lacking artistic purity. First, it was on a treadmill when it was about 63 degrees outside. Second, my treadmill was right in front of a television that had an infomercial on about double action colon cleansing. Now I'm not one to begrudge one's colon cleansing because I definitely don't want to be the guy that has 42 pounds of fecal matter in his intestines, but I would rather have watched SportsCenter or at the very least CNN (and the commentary on the Democratic-YouTube debate last night (BTW, Hillary won)), but no, I was forced to watch double action colon cleansing. How exactly is it double action? I'm glad you asked and if you find out, please let me know. All I know is that I'd like a shiny pink colon instead of the disgustingness that it is today. However, no ass punch please. I've been through two colonoscopies and the ass punch is truly terrible. Never have my co-workers been as horrified and empathetic as those two days that I had to take the ass punch at work.

I'm off track. Back to artistic purity. Let's recap. Treadmill despite beautiful weather and double action infomercial. Let's move on.

As I stated last week, I renewed my membership at the gym solely to use the treadmill for my interval/speed workouts. Today was day 1. Incline at 1.0. 1 mile warmup at 8:30 and then 7 (although I was supposed to do 9) half mile repeats. The first one was a warmup at 7:03 pace. Two and three were at 6:38 pace. Four, five, and six were at 6:18 pace. Seven was at 5:58 pace. At the end of the seventh, I was done. The legs were shot. However, it was a much better workout than any of my previous track sessions. Oh yea, I have only 7 more weeks of speed workouts. The outcome is still in doubt, but at least there is hope. My legs haven't felt this good in years. Defiling myself on the treadmill will definitely have been worth it if a sub-3 happens.

BTW, I am at my target racing weight. I've been struggling for weeks to lose that last three pounds and like magic, it just simply vanished this past week. I think it was the 50 mile week. My body simply finally surrendered. And no, I'm not looking emaciated. I've been focusing on my core and upper body as well (i.e., crunches, pushups, The Plank, curls, and back work before bed). No swinging the arms side to side on this runner.

Boring

The unfortunate thing about living in a nicer suburb is that my running experiences, unless I drive somewhere to run, are pretty boring. In NY, I'd be dodging and flipping off insane drivers and cyclists. I might even see a police chase. In CA, not so much. I just go and run.

Last week, I ran 47 miles. I missed one day because I decided that sleeping in on a recovery day would be a much nicer recovery than running a slow 6 miles. It was. However, I didn't cross the 50 mile mark for the week.

I did run a 20 miler on Saturday. I wasn't feeling it and I didn't get out until 8am, at which point, it was a sweltering 75 degrees (you think I'm joking, I'm not. It was hot.), so I didn't push it.

Not pushing it meant I ran 20 in 2:29 (7:28 miles). By the way, that tied my personal best for a 20 mile training run. Encouraging. However, well off the pace I was at for my 16 miler two weeks ago (7:10 miles). Tomorrow the treadmill calleth. Hopefully there aren't any insane retired Eastern Europeans with gold chains at the gym. Although at least I'd have an interesting entry.

Gin

Not the drink, the card game. I've been playing gin since I was six or seven and my grandfather taught me. He would pretty much smoke me every time as he is the ultimate card counter. However, as I grew older, I began to hold my own. As a result of my experience playing this game, I have never lost a match, except to my grandfather. A hand, yes. A game, yes, but never a match (5 games of 100 pts each). The closest I ever came to losing a match was to my friend Lee many years ago.

I taught Liz how go play several years ago and she has consistently gotten better, even winning games from time to time. We usually play a 100 point game during the evening.

Last night, I won 110 - 0.

Back to the Treadmill

Only on Tuesdays. My speed workouts just aren't happening on the track. Well, they are happening, but they just aren't fast enough. So next Tuesday I will be heading back to Ballys. Don't worry. Just Tuesdays.

Training

I should have begun posting about my weekly training weeks ago or at the minimum last week (as you'll soon find out), but here it is anyway. I'm eight weeks into a twenty week program. Last week, I ran a measley 36 miles. I was scheduled for 52, but I missed two days. The week before I ran 50, which is why I should have started this last week.

My schedule pretty much looks like this every week:

- M,W,F - 6 recovery miles (usually in the 7:40 - 7:50 range)
- Tu - track workout (alternating 800s and 1600s at 6:00 - 6:10 pace) - I'll talk more about these later
- Thurs - medium long run (10 - 13 miles) with hills with 4 to 5 miles being at tempo pace (6:30 and below)
- Sat - long run (16 - 24 miles at 7:30 pace for 50% to 75% and 6:48 pace for 25% to 50%)

It's a pretty demanding schedule. I hit my pace on all of my runs except for my track workouts, where I'm a little slow. Apparently running that fast early in the morning is extremely difficult. Also, the track bores me to tears. It's a little discouraging, but the long runs at marathon pace pick me back up to end the week.

I'm thinking of alternating hill repeats with my medium long run. Same total distance, but doing four big hills in the middle. That Veyo volcano scares me. I could easily lose 2 minutes on that thing.

No real injuries, although today my right hamstring is a little sore. Ok, more than a little.

I have had some interesting experiences on my long runs. My brother is a die hard triathlete and when we were talking a month or so ago, he mentioned that he was trying something new with his cycling. Instead of going for a high cadence, he was putting his bike into a big gear and keeping the same speed. He said something about this being recommended because it became more anaerobic and saved your heart for the run.

I decided to try this out while running. I typically have a shorter stride and focus on my leg turnover. I measured my heart rate with my usual stride/turnover/speed. I then ran with a longer stride/slower turnover/same speed and what do you know, my heart rate was about 3% lower. I've done this several times with the same results.

As a result of my results, I have now begun alternating normal stride/quicker turnover with longer stride/slower turnover during my long runs, particularly with the MP portion of my long runs and have found that I am able to keep up MP for a much longer time. I can't run for long periods of time with my longer stride/slower turnover, but I can run this way long enough that it acts as a recovery due to the slower heart rate even though my speed is constant.

So that's the report. This Saturday is my first 20 miler in about 3 months.

"Sorry Guys,

but my mom is making me get off the computer." Those were the words I read last night as a group of Alliance questers were trying to kill the last boss in a lower level dungeon in World of Warcraft. It had taken us 1.5 hours to get to the boss and this kid's mom was ruining our fun.

I have problems.

A Break From Running

I normally don't dive into politics or economics too seriously on this blog, primarily because my blog entries normally take five minutes and five minutes is not enough time to form a logical, coherent, defensible political or economic statement. The recent debate on the immigration issue caused me to think back to a paper I wrote while I was in business school. Remember that this was written in 2004 and that some of the numbers have changed and Greenspan is no longer at the Fed. Although not my best work, I thought that the topic was fairly interesting. My paper, probably not so much, but here it is. My position has changed a little, but not by much. The original paper had citations in it, but because this is a personal blog, I'm excluding them.

‘You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits don’t matter.’ Whether or not Dick Cheney said this to Paul O’Neill is a matter for debate, but the underlying question remains. Do deficits matter? Is a large public debt a threat to a nation’s economy? Because the question is rather nebulous, I’m going to interpret the questions thusly, should the U.S. be concerned with the size and projected growth of its current debt? Our simple answer is no and our more sophisticated answer is also no, as long as certain criteria are met. Within this paper, we will address the risks and potential benefits of large deficits, why the current size of the debt does not matter, and why it will not matter going forward as long as certain conditions are met.

The opponents of a large public debt argue that the long-term economic health and social stability of a country are put at risk by this debt. Crowding out, a regressive distributional impact, a burden on future generations, and the diversion of revenues from social programs to interest payments are all familiar arguments against running large deficits.

Those in favor of a large public debt argue that the debt stimulates the markets, creating new ones in some cases, acts as a tax smoothing instrument, injects capital into the economy and provides a stimulus for growth, improves the infrastructure, and acts as an automatic demand stabilizer.

The question is who is right. Let me share a little story. One day at the Chateau Fuller, high up in the Sierra Nevadas overlooking Lake Tahoe, an enterprising young snowboarder surveyed the valley below and the mountain above. He reflected on his previous day’s ride through the valley and how nothing, not moguls, not rocks, not skiers, not newbie boarders got in his way. He was one with the mountain. Then he began to wonder what it would take to go up the mountain, aside from a ski lift, helicopter, or Snow Cat. He wondered about a magic snowboard that would defy the law of gravity and allow him to blaze up the mountain unabated; a magic snowboard so strong that he would be able to tow his friends along as well.

Obviously, or maybe not so obviously, this is an economic metaphor. The snowboarder is the U.S. economy. The velocity of our young friend is the well being of the economy or growth. The obstacles are, well, obstacles to growth. What about the magic snowboard? It represents policies that stimulate growth. Policies that promote and actually result in growth are the key in ensuring that deficits do not matter. As long as growth continues, deficits will not matter. And, as we discussed previously, one of the key benefits to a large public debt is its ability to stimulate growth. The question then is how does the U.S. ensure that when it is running a large deficit that growth continues? The answer is that it avoids the obstacles and provides stimuli.

Generally speaking, obstacles to growth include higher interest rates and higher taxes. The argument that many take as a wizard’s, or in this case, economist’s first rule is that deficits lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in interest rates lead to the crowding out of the private sector and slower growth. Let’s take a look at some work that Robert J. Barro did in looking at the effects of deficits on interest rates in non-wartime periods. In 1833, the United Kingdom freed its West Indian slaves. As compensation to the slaveholders, the government provided the former slaveholders with a one-time payment. This compensation was funded primarily through debt. In addition, in 1909, legislative deadlock prevented the United Kingdom from levying any taxes. Again, the government was funded through the issuance of debt. In both of these cases, the large deficit that was created did not result in increases in the interest rate. A more recent example is the past twenty years. During the Reagan, Bush I, and Bush II years, large deficit spending occurred and interest rates were not affected. Currently rates are near all-time lows and the deficit as a percentage of GDP is lower today than it was during the Reagan and Bush I years. The argument here is that deficits do not lead automatically to rises in interest rates, which are analogous with slower growth.

During wartime, Barro’s evidence points to deficits in fact leading to a rise in interest rates. However, the debt that is issued during wartime is principally long-term debt. Today, the U.S. is primarily issuing short-term debt. 72% of all current debt issued by the U.S. is short-term, defined as being under five years. Regardless of whether the U.S. is considered to be in a current wartime state or not, Barro’s long-term debt and corresponding rise in interest rate evidence does not apply.

We come back to a possible rise in interest rates on the U.S.’s short-term debt. If a rise did occur, the U.S. could be under pressure to use inflation as a tool to lighten the burden on itself. The question hinges on whether or not this will happen. The simple answer is no. It is a political economy question. Alan Greenspan says inflation is under control. Inflation has been under control the past 25 years, times of large deficits included. Greenspan’s word is as good as God’s. Governments and people believe him as he pronounces his edicts from on high. If governments and people believe him, then they will not ask for higher interest rates on the U.S.’s short-term debt. As long as the economy continues to grow, demand for higher rates will not happen. In addition, Asian governments such as Japan’s have a vested interest in keeping the U.S. economy going. Their insatiable demand for U.S. debt, as a result of their desire to keep their currencies from rising against the dollar, is crowding out any type of crowding out.

We’ve discussed the obstacles to our magic snowboard. Now, let’s discuss the stimuli. Deficits and tax cuts are the stimuli that will keep our snowboard out of harm’s way. When the government injects capital into the economy and cuts taxes on corporations and people, it spurs growth. Companies have more cash to invest and rely less on debt. This growth leads to higher tax revenues, which in turn enable the U.S. to pay back its debt and lower the deficit.

As we can see, deficit spending and lower tax cuts go hand in hand with growth. They create a positive growth feedback loop. So what is the big deal? Why have the CBO and every other economist worth his or her salt projected huge deficits at current tax levels beginning in 2014? It’s the boomers. The boomers will begin to retire. They will generally begin to leave the tax-paying workforce, move to Florida, and begin to collect social security. This is potentially a huge problem. Without the tax receipts from these boomers and with entitlements going to more people, the U.S. could be in big trouble. To pay these entitlements, taxes would need to be raised, which again, will slow down growth. The deficit will widen. However, taxes won’t be raised and the deficit will not widen.

The CBO projections account for stable population growth. Immigration growth is not included as a major contributing factor. Maybe the CBO should have spoken to the Center for Immigration Studies. The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) and the Census Bureau estimate that by 2050, the U.S. population will increase to 550 million. That’s almost double the current population. Why will people from other countries be coming here? Supply and demand. The growth of the U.S. economy leads to job creation. Job creation leads to the need for more workers. People immigrate to the U.S. to take these jobs. In addition, the boomers will be retiring and replacements will be needed. These are additional taxpayers that will fund the additional entitlements the retirees are due.

There are 76 million baby boomers. Let’s divide them into two main groups. 39 million will be eligible under current social security rules for benefits in 2021. 37 million will be eligible for benefits in 2039. Based on the CIS and Census Bureau data, let’s assume 100 million additional tax paying Americans by 2021 and roughly 200 million by 2039. Granted not all are tax payers, but the numbers are there to support the boomers. It will not be a crisis. Immigration solves the problem of possibly having to increase taxes to pay off the debt and to pay the boomers what is due to them.

The population increase leads to the normal deficit cycle of deficits going up and down as the business cycle goes up and down, funding recessions with deficits and paying them back when we have surplus.

Deficits and low taxes go hand in hand with our friend growth. Do deficits matter? They can, but under the right conditions, which are being fostered now, they will not.

Catching the Rabbit

I wanted to have some reggae music playing in the background and then make up some very clever running lyrics that went to Bob Marley's "I Shot The Sherriff" and when I got about half-way through it I realized that it was probably the dumbest, corniest, embarrassing thing I had ever written. And that's saying something. It's not often that I blush at my own writing. I realize that I am not as clever as I think I am and that I say and write things that at the time I think are amazingly witty, but upon reflection are just plain dumb. I'm not sure how Liz puts up with it. Another reason to keep my mouth shut. You keep your mouth shut and people thing you are introspective, thoughtful, and intelligent. The reality is that I'm just barely smart enough to realize that my best chance in life is to keep silent and keep tricking others. It's worked so far. Here's hoping to another 40 years of successful silence.

Anyways (not a good transition, I know, but it's the best I could come up with), I caught the rabbit last week. It was a minor miracle, not because I only ran 7:00s, but because I ran into a skunk about a mile into the run and he didn't want to leave the path. I almost was doused, but fortunately about 6 feet before I came upon the kitty and was about to say, "Hi kitty, looks like the Grizzley Bear didn't find you", I saw a huge tail go up and sprinted backwards. I didn't realize I was so quick. I could play tennis, although that really wouldn't fit into the endurance athlete macho persona that I'm trying to foster. All 150 lbs of macho. Yea baby. You better watch out. Yes, I've dropped 4 lbs. I'm about 3 lbs shy of my target weight. (Maybe that's why Liz made me 2 dozen delicious gluten-free chocolate chip cookies. I ate 10 for breakfast. Hey, I was hungry. Now I just need a chocolate milk dispenser and we'll be good to go.)

So the rabbit run is on again tomorrow. Need to drop my tempo run speed by another 20 seconds per mile over the next couple of weeks if I am to have any chance of making my goal. Here's to the slow down of old age (for any of my friends that have access to the pharmaceutical "Fountain of Youth", please give me a call. I'm in serious need. Just don't tell Liz.)

Smooth

I'm a smooth runner. My form is smooth, my breathing is smooth, my stride is smooth. No wasted motion. Efficient. It's what enables me to be a decent runner. Smoothness translates into comfort. When I run, I'm comfortable. There is no haggard breathing, no wild swinging of the arms across the body, no anything that would cause me to be uncomfortable. I'm grown comfortable with my comfortable style of running and look what I've done. I've run 5 marathons. I've BQ'd. I've run Boston. It's all been very smooth, very easy. That's not to say that I haven't worked for it, but just that working for it has been easy. That's not the case right now.

Right now, comfortable running leaves at around 6:50 pace. That's a problem. My training calls for running at least once a week and sometimes twice a week distances between 8 and 12 miles at 6:20 pace. Right now, it's not happening. Whether it is the increased mileage, which has given me a mild case of dead legs, overall exhaustion of only getting 6 hours of sleep a night, or my legs just not wanting to turn over quickly enough (the secret to running fast is leg turnover, not increased stride. Your stride is your stride.), I am unable to ratchet up to a higher gear for longer periods of time. Again, this is a problem for someone who needs to run 6:50 miles for 26.2 miles. Training at 6:50 just won't cut it on race day.

I've now completed my first two out of twenty weeks of training. My legs feel like iron. I'm strengthening my core. I've stopped drinking soda completely. I'm weighing myself about six times a day (my ideal race weight is 147. Theoretically, you gain a second a mile for every ounce you lose. I have about 6 pounds to lose). I'm eating right (I'm only getting a bacon cheeseburger with fries and ranch instead of a double bacon cheeseburger with fries and ranch). I'm in the mode. The legs just won't go where they need to go comfortably.

To rectify this problem, I incorporated strides into my easy workouts starting today. Strides are 100m sprints that you do at the end of an easy 4 to 6 mile run. I'm also going to start doing light track workouts at the end of my other easy days. Gotta get those legs going. It won't be comfortable, but I'm hoping that by changing my training strategy at this point, that I will be able to slowly increase my comfortable pace speed.

Wanted: New Lungs

Today is Day 4 of my 20 week training program in preparation for the St. George Marathon and today I really began to realize what a fight it is going to be to run a sub-3. Today was my first tempo run in a long time. 8 mile run. 2 mile warm-up, 5 miles at 10k pace, and 1 mile cooldown. Well, my 10k pace should be around 6:15 - 6:20. However, today, it was 7:00.

My lungs are completely out of shape. This is what happens when you haven't trained specific to your capabilities, but rather to someone else's capabilities. Your lungs go to pot. Don't get me wrong, I have enjoyed the social aspects of running here. It's really the first time that I have found a large group of people to run with. The problem is that they run hills and when we do run the flats, I'm typically holding back. I'll still run with the group, but I will likely only do it on short recovery runs when I'm just looking to get mileage. Good thing I have 19 weeks and 3 days to move the needle.

Happy Birthday Liz!

I hope all of your birthday dreams come true. I plan on making lots of gravy. And slathering it all over me.

Lottery Winner

This isn't about money, but about my entry into the St. George Marathon. You see, due to local and state regulations regarding the road this race is run on, only 6900 people are allowed to participate. However, because it is a very downhill course, very well organized, and in a beautiful part of Utah, many more people than 6900 try to enter each year. That's where the lottery comes in. Fortunately, I was one of the lucky ones and got in.

With the reality of me running St. George in October (potential reality really as we have a newborn coming in August), comes the necessary creation of a training schedule. Not since I ran the Cincinnati Flying Pig Marathon in 2004 have I created such a detailed schedule. The reason being is that this race will represent my attempt to go under 3 hours. Having a marathon result that starts with a 2 is my ultimate running goal. I am quite sure that if I ran a sub-3 that it would be the most significant athletic accomplishment of my life. I would probably even shed a tear or two. It means everything to this runner.

However, when I looked at my schedule and truly began to comprehend what it would take, a little bit of fear crept into my psyche. It's going to be extremely difficult and even if I train perfectly, the possibility of not running a sub-3 is there. With a perfect training cycle, I still put the odds at about 50/50.

Training starts May 21st. May I have the strength to wake up at 4:30am Monday through Saturday for 20 weeks.