Tuesday, September 18, 2012

332 - 206

What a difference a week makes. All of the swings states, including Florida are trending even more towards President Obama. And it's not about the economy ("stupid"). It's about the perception (reality in the broad, not the personal, sense?) that Governor Romney is wooden and out of touch with middle class, much less poor, America. The video released yesterday of Governor Romney meeting his donors isn't doing him any favors.

The growing gap in the state by state polls could make the debates much less interesting as President Obama is much more likely to keep to a script that just runs out the clock rather than feeling like he needs to hit a home run.

One piece of advice for Governor Romney. It's "people who", not "people that".

Friday, September 07, 2012

Electoral Politics

If I was a betting man and the election was held today, I'd bet that President Obama would win 303 electoral votes to 235 for Governor Romney.  However, 8.5 weeks is a long time.  Four years ago, the last 8 weeks changed the election.

Governor Romney obviously has to win Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and either Iowa or Colorado.  It's going to be tough for him to pull it out.

I don't want to hear any comments about the source of the map. It's from HuffPo's Pollster site. It's the best one to manipulate (i.e., change state winners) and I trust the Pollster team's aggregated data.