MM

Every time I hear Modest Mouse, I can picture clear as day going to Coney Island with Liz and Zane (in a stroller) in the summer of 2005 and watching Modest Mouse in some kind of crazy concrete pit while eating street meat. I remember heavily tatted men and women telling us how cute our little baby boy was. Good times.

Coues Deer Hunt Sunrise

No bucks this year, but what a hunt. I've never seen as many does as I saw this year. Unit 34A is where it's at. I'll be back next year and hopefully I'll be able to stay more than two days.

"Hitler Implements SAP"

All Things Must End

And thus ends my winning streak of voting for the winning presidential candidate.  Every election since 1996 (for some reason I didn't vote in 1992 - bad citizen).  I knew it was a longshot for Romney to win, but I didn't think he'd lose every battleground state, but one (and pending Florida).  I also didn't think Romney would lose the popular vote by 2 million votes (at this point).  The two things I think hurt Romney the most were: 1) No Latino support and 2) Opposing the auto bailout.  #2 was a one time occurrence for the GOP, but #1 is a huge problem for them.

Here's to avoiding the fiscal cliff.  Cheers!

281 - 257

My final best case prediction for Governor Romney is that he still loses to President Obama.  I think it likely that Governor Romney loses CO and VA as well, which would result in a 303-235 victory for President Obama.

Governor Romney will likely win the popular vote.  From a % standpoint, if President Obama wins 303-235, but loses the popular vote, it still wouldn't be the largest electoral college margin of victory (13%) for a candidate that lost the popular vote.  That honor belongs to William Henry Harrison (16%).

2012 Vote

I voted for Mitt Romney on Monday.  In 2008, I voted for President Obama.  I like many of the things that the President has done, including moving the country further along the healthcare continuum towards Universal Health Care, which I support (with private options for those that want additional/better care).  The President's foreign policy has been excellent.  Of course there are many things I disagree with the President on, but for the most part, I think he has done a pretty good job.

I voted for Mitt Romney on the basis of my faith.  We share a faith that I believe he represents well.  My faith is the most important thing in my life.  Having a person of my faith in the role of President would enable more to come to a better knowledge and understanding of my faith.  I think that spreading the good news is what God wants and I believe that Mitt Romney becoming President would be a great tool in the Lord's hands.  I recognize that Mitt wouldn't be an active evangelist, but simply by being in the role, he would be a passive evangelist and I think that would be a good thing.

Do I agree with everything or most of what Mitt Romney and the Republican Party have campaigned on?  No.  In fact, I think the Republican Party platform is one that would continue the increase in inequality within the United States, which I find abhorrent.  However, I think that if Mitt Romney became President that he would discard most of the extreme views of the right and would be a very moderate President.  That's something I find politically palatable.

Obama Strikes Back

Good debate for the President.  Average debate for the Governor, with a few stumbles.  Not sure how it will affect the polls.  I suspect that it will change little and that the president is ahead 290-248 in the Electoral College.

The Governor needs to step up his game for the next debate, as he's shown weakness in Foreign Policy.

V.P. Debate

I listened to the debate live on NPR as I was driving to the airport.  It sounded like Biden was really having his way with a very timid Ryan.  Was he rude, sure.  Was it effective rudeness, yes.

Then I watched the replay on CNN.  V.P. Biden's body language and expressions were terrible.  It was worse than Al Gore's 2000 first debate performance.

On substance, it seemed to depend on the topic.  Biden came across as more caring for those suffering.  Except for one instance, I thought Ryan had him on foreign policy (c'mon Ryan, would you rather put U.S. troops or Afghan troops at risk??).  

I'd say on the whole, it was a tossup.  Probably didn't sway any middle of the roaders and reinforced beliefs for people that have already taken sides.

269 - 269

One can dream ...

It was ..

a good debate last night.  The candidates got a little wonky, which I'm always a fan of.  I agree with the pundits. Governor Romney had the better night.  He was more engaged, energetic, and seemed to want it more.  His main MediCare talking point (which he almost forgot about) seemed to stump the President.  President Obama seemed to struggle at times looking for words (I liked Bill Maher's tweet) and his arguments were soft rather than factual.  It was interesting to watch their debate strategies knowing where they are in the polls.  The President just needs to play defense and make sure he doesn't mess up.  Governor Romney is obviously looking for something big to shake up the electoral math.  The polls over the next week should be interesting in CO, OH, VA, NC, IA, and FL will be closely watched.  I still think he has an uphill battle in OH.  The nature of the economy, the distrust of the rich, and the discomfort that I suspect many Ohioans feel with a Mormon are huge obstacles to ovecome in that state.

I have no idea what to expect next week when Congressman Ryan and Vice-President Biden face off.  Seriously, no idea.

332 - 206

What a difference a week makes. All of the swings states, including Florida are trending even more towards President Obama. And it's not about the economy ("stupid"). It's about the perception (reality in the broad, not the personal, sense?) that Governor Romney is wooden and out of touch with middle class, much less poor, America. The video released yesterday of Governor Romney meeting his donors isn't doing him any favors.

The growing gap in the state by state polls could make the debates much less interesting as President Obama is much more likely to keep to a script that just runs out the clock rather than feeling like he needs to hit a home run.

One piece of advice for Governor Romney. It's "people who", not "people that".

Electoral Politics

If I was a betting man and the election was held today, I'd bet that President Obama would win 303 electoral votes to 235 for Governor Romney.  However, 8.5 weeks is a long time.  Four years ago, the last 8 weeks changed the election.

Governor Romney obviously has to win Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and either Iowa or Colorado.  It's going to be tough for him to pull it out.

I don't want to hear any comments about the source of the map. It's from HuffPo's Pollster site. It's the best one to manipulate (i.e., change state winners) and I trust the Pollster team's aggregated data.

Exoplanets

From XKCD:

"Planets are turning out to be so common that to show all the planets in our galaxy, this chart would have to be nested in itself--with each planet replaced by a copy of the chart--at least three levels deep."

Champions of the Champions League

What a season! Two trophies, including the most important club trophy in the world. Three come from behind victories starting with Napoli in the quarterfinals. Go Blues! Great piece on Grantland here.

Dirt Biking

The Colbert Report
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Yesterday morning out for a ride. One spill, one decent jump, and no broken bones. Yet.

Ragnar Ultra

38.9 miles or just about 3 half-marathons over the course of 20 hours. The first 13.6 miles were fun. My left calf felt like it was going to fall off for the first five miles and then all of the sudden loosed up and I was fine the rest of the race. Got a little sunburned, but well worth it. I passed 33 people and was passed once (note: only 10% of the teams were ultra teams). I averaged a 7:17 pace.

My second run was 12.1 miles through river beds and up hills at night. Usually my night runs are my favorite. Nice and cool. However, the unpaved riverbed and the 7 miles of uphill were a little challenging. I only passed 16 people and was passed zero times. My average pace was 7:43.

My third run was 13.2 miles. Lots of beautiful downhill, which I needed because I was tired. I passed 21 people and was passed three times, but I honestly didn't care. I only had enough energy to run. For example, I listened to the same album 2.3 times because I couldn't spare the energy to change albums on my iPod. I averaged a 7:23 pace.



Three of my sisters (hardcore each and every one) and two friends ran it as well. At no point did we think that more than 4 of us would die of dehydration/exhaustion/sun stroke.

I'm seriously considering doing it with only three people next year (i.e., ~68 miles per person).

38

Ultra Ragnar is coming up in 2 weeks. 38 miles over 24 hours or almost 3 separate half-marathons. I think I'd rather just run the 38 in one shot. I'm definitely going to be tired and stiff when that third run comes calling.

Shoot First

Just had a tour of the FBI Academy from my soon to be Special Agent brother. Remind me to remind you to never mess with these guys.

In Our Name

From The Atlantic:

"... the Bush administration put forth a very narrow definition, arguing that for an action to be deemed torture, it must produce suffering “equivalent in intensity to the pain accompanying serious physical injury, such as organ failure, impairment of bodily function, or even death.” To place this in perspective: the administration’s threshold for when an act of torture begins was the point at which the Inquisition stipulated that it must stop."

Dirty

Saturday

Is Tough Mudder the same as other events out there like Muddy Buddy or Warrior Dash?

No. Muddy Buddy and Warrior Dash are both great events and really fun days out, but Tough Mudder is a very different proposition. Our events are three times as long, take place in hostile environments, often at altitude, and are a significant physical and mental challenge. Completing a Tough Mudder requires camaraderie and a degree of toughness that other mud-runs will not even begin to test.